Most of the observable phenomena in the empirical sciences are of multivariate nature. This book presents the tools and concepts of multivariate data analysis with a strong focus on applications. The text is devided into three parts. The first part is devoted to graphical techniques describing the distributions of the involved variables. The second part deals with multivariate random variables and presents from a theoretical point of view distributions, estimators and tests for various practical situations. The last part covers multivariate techniques and introduces the reader into the wide basket of tools for multivariate data analysis. The text presents a wide range of examples and 228 exercises.

Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory accessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and nonstationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area.
The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introductions are also given to cointegration and to nonlinear, continuous-time and long-memory models.
The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.

This book provides a self-contained and up-to-date treatment of the Monte Carlo method and develops a common framework under which various Monte Carlo techniques can be "standardized" and compared. Given the interdisciplinary nature of the topics and a moderate prerequisite for the reader, this book should be of interest to a broad audience of quantitative researchers such as computational biologists, computer scientists, econometricians, engineers, probabilists, and statisticians. It can also be used as the textbook for a graduate-level course on Monte Carlo methods. Many problems discussed in the alter chapters can be potential thesis topics for masters’ or Ph.D. students in statistics or computer science departments.

This book is an introductionary course in stochastic ordering and dependence in the field of applied probability for readers with some background in mathematics. It is based on lectures and senlinars I have been giving for students at Mathematical Institute of Wroclaw University, and on a graduate course a.t Industrial Engineering Department of Texas A&M University, College Station, and addressed to a reader willing to use for example Lebesgue measure, conditional expectations with respect to sigma fields, martingales, or compensators as a common language in this field.

We will occasionally footnote a portion of text with a "**,, to indicate Notes on the that this portion can be initially bypassed. The reasons for bypassing a Text portion of the text include: the subject is a special topic that will not be referenced later, the material can be skipped on first reading, or the level of mathematics is higher than the rest of the text. In cases where a topic is self-contained, we opt to collect the material into an appendix that can be read by students at their leisure. The material in the text cannot be fully assimilated until one makes it Notes on "their own" by applying the material to specific problems. Self-discovery Problems is the best teacher and although they are no substitute for an inquiring mind, problems that explore the subject from different viewpoints can often help the student to think about the material in a uniquely per­ sonal way. With this in mind, we have made problems an integral part of this work and have attempted to make them interesting as well as informative.

This book is an elementary and practical introduction to probability theory. It differs from other introductory texts in two important respects. First, the per­ sonal (or subjective) view of probability is adopted throughout. Second, emphasis is placed on how values are assigned to probabilities in practice, i.e. the measurement of probabilities. The personal approach to probability is in many ways more natural than other current formulations, and can also provide a broader view of the subject. It thus has a unifying effect. It has also assumed great importance recently because of the growth of Bayesian Statistics. Personal probability is essential for modern Bayesian methods, and it can be difficult for students who have learnt a different view of probability to adapt to Bayesian thinking. This book has been produced in response to that difficulty, to present a thorough introduction to probability from scratch, and entirely in the personal framework.

In the Preface to the first edition, originally published in 1980, we mentioned that this book was based on the author's lectures in the Department of Mechanics and Mathematics of the Lomonosov University in Moscow, which were issued, in part, in mimeographed form under the title "Probabil­ ity, Statistics, and Stochastic Processors, I, II" and published by that Univer­ sity. Our original intention in writing the first edition of this book was to divide the contents into three parts: probability, mathematical statistics, and theory of stochastic processes, which corresponds to an outline of a three­ semester course of lectures for university students of mathematics. However, in the course of preparing the book, it turned out to be impossible to realize this intention completely, since a full exposition would have required too much space.

This book is a text at the introductory graduate level, for use in the one­ semester or two-quarter probability course for first-year graduate students that seems ubiquitous in departments of statistics, biostatistics, mathemat­ ical sciences, applied mathematics and mathematics. While it is accessi­ ble to advanced ("mathematically mature") undergraduates, it could also serve, with supplementation, for a course on measure-theoretic probability. Students who master this text should be able to read the "hard" books on probability with relative ease, and to proceed to further study in statistics or stochastic processes.

Most probability problems involve random variables indexed by space and/or time. These problems almost always have a version in which space and/or time are taken to be discrete. This volume deals with areas in which the discrete version is more natural than the continuous one, perhaps even the only one than can be formulated without complicated constructions and machinery.

The third edition of 1992 constituted a major reworking of the original text, and the preface to that edition still represents my position on the issues that stimulated me first to write. The present edition contains a number of minor modifications and corrections, but its principal innovation is the addition of material on dynamic programming, optimal allocation, option pricing and large deviations. These are substantial topics, but ones into which one can gain an insight with less labour than is generally thought.

Reliability analysis is concerned with the analysis of devices and systems whose individual components are prone to failure. This textbook presents an introduction to reliability analysis of repairable and non-repairable systems. It is based on courses given to both undergraduate and graduate students of engineering and statistics as well as in workshops for professional engineers and scientists. As aresult, the book concentrates on the methodology of the subject and on understanding theoretical results rather than on its theoretical development.

The application of statistical methods to physics is essential. This unique book on statistical physics offers an advanced approach with numerous applications to the modern problems students are confronted with. Therefore the text contains more concepts and methods in statistics than the student would needed for statistical mechanics alone. Methods from mathematical statistics and stochastics for the analysis of data are discussed as well. The book is divided in two parts focusing first on the modelling of statistical systems then on the analysis of these systems. Problems with hints for solution help the students to deepen their knowledge.

Scientists in optics are increasingly confronted with problems that are of a random nature and that require a working knowledge of probability and statistics for their solution. This textbook develops these subjects within the context of optics using a problem-solving approach. All methods are explicitly derived and can be traced back to three simple axioms given at the outset. Students with some previous exposure to Fourier optics or linear theory will find the material particularly absorbing and easy to understand.

The author, the founder of the Greek Statistical Institute, has based this book on the two volumes of his Greek edition which has been used by over ten thousand students during the past fifteen years. It can serve as a companion text for an introductory or intermediate level probability course.

We have made small changes throughout the book, including the exercises, and we have tried to correct if not all, then at least most of the typos. We wish to thank the many colleagues and students who have commented c- structively on the book since its publication two years ago, and in particular Professors Valentin Petrov, Esko Valkeila, Volker Priebe, and Frank Knight. Jean Jacod, Paris Philip Protter, Ithaca March, 2002 Preface to the Second Printing of the Second Edition We have bene?ted greatly from the long list of typos and small suggestions sent to us by Professor Luis Tenorio. These corrections have improved the book in subtle yet important ways, and the authors are most grateful to him.