A Decision-Analytic Manifesto

Decision-analytic methods and practices could indeed help save our world, should they become more widespread–but only then. Buried deep in countless research papers, they remain inaccessible for the common good of our society.

Decision-making, if taken seriously, includes many important components such as trade-offs between different, sometimes conflicting, aspects, values, and uncertainties as well as people with a variety of preferences. Its potential is visible not least during serious crises affecting individuals, organisations, or entire societies. Some common features of these situations are that they involve different stakeholders and opinions, usually contain significant uncertainties due to a lack of complete knowledge and complex interacting narratives as well as have a possibility of serious consequences, depending on the choice of strategies.

In order for us as humans to be able to analyse and give advice to ourselves and to other decision-makers, powerful methods are required. The purpose of this book is to present and discuss such highly efficient and effective decision-making methods and tools.